Monthly Archives: June 2016

Brexit: What May The Future Hold ?


Trying to predict the future is a fool’s game, the best that can be done is to raise issues that will likely become more prominent in the near future – whether they become reality or not is always going to be dependent on how the crucial players react.

A couple of weeks ago I raised the prospect of Theresa May becoming the next Tory leader and Prime Minister and now she is the bookies favourite to win the Conservative leadership contest. Last Friday, following David Cameron’s address to the nation I raised the possibility that there could be a second EU referendum, in the intervening period this has been a talking point in the country but I’m bound to say that the possibility of a second referendum is receding – that possibility was always dependent on the EU meeting the challenges of Brexit  with reform and it appears clear that the EU plans to respond with even closer union. How the EU intends to persuade citizens in Europe to accept this is unclear – it looks like they won’t bother and will attempt to drive it through without consulting the people and, as a consequence, it is an ambition that is bound to fail; even if EU leaders feign confidence and it looks like a promising prospect in the short term – it will result in referenda rejecting this plan or if the people are not consulted, very dangerous civil disturbance across the continent. This could be met with tolerance, in which case there will be grinding instability over the short to medium term – or robustly, which could result in civil war in some countries.

I think two further potential consequences should be raised now.

The first is that if President Obama continues to sit on the sidelines it becomes increasingly likely that Donald Trump will become the next US President. It needs to be understood that if Trump were to make trade cooperation with the UK a priority for his new administration and central plank of his election campaign and Obama sticks to his “back of the queue” ultimatum then Hilary Clinton will be at a severe disadvantage in the run up to the Presidential elections in November.

This is not pie in the sky, this is a very real potential consequence of Brexit. It would be an extremely emotive and powerful tool in Trump’s bid to become President, and Trump knows which buttons to press, what will rally his potential constituency to turn out and elect him.

The second important point that I think should be raised is that NATO could disband – the EU has effectively declared economic war on the UK, talk of punishment is a threat Western leaders will hope is just talk and the immediate emotional reaction of EU officials but I suspect it is not; add to this the EU interfering in the internal politics of the UK, agitating for its break-up, and it is difficult to see how the UK can remain within a NATO, pledged to come to the aid of the EU in the event of Russian belligerence. The UK is very unlikely to be attacked itself, it would be militarily and strategically foolish for Russia to attack the UK directly but if the EU is intent on waging an economic war on the UK then why would the UK continue to share intelligence or sacrifice British lives in defence of the EU ?

This might seem extremely unlikely but I think it is now more likely than many people realise.

For Britons, we need to remember that Great Britain has stood alone before, that a great many Britons have sacrificed a great deal more for Democracy and Sovereignty than we are ever likely to have to, and that if the EU abandon the principles of democracy in pursuit of an ideology that sees bureaucrats and technocrats govern, and multi-national financial interests  benefit, while the vast majority of Europeans become poorer – then it is creating an unstable and dangerous situation.

Great Britain need not do anything other than stand firm. 


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EU Plans to Become Superstate

If true, we Brexited just in time…

EU Documents signed by both the French and German foreign mimisters released by the Polish channel TVP.INFO on 27th June 2016;


The main assumptions of the document:

• Member countries without the right to its own army and special services.
• The unification of criminal law and the tax system.
• Member without their own currency and central bank.
• Uniform visa system.
• A common foreign policy with other countries and international organizations.
• Limited role of NATO.


(From TVP.INFO – watermark removed only to aid reading clarity);









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Get Down

The Friday Night Song

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The Morning After The Day Before. What Next?

Now that the UK have voted to leave the EU it is time to reflect and attempt to predict what will happen next.

Firstly, on the economy. Unfortunately the economic scare-mongering was always going to be a self-fulfilling prophesy and it was one of the reasons that David Cameron and George Osborne’s campaign was so irresponsible. Right now investors are betting on what they’ve been told but within a week the markets will have settled.

The threats of foreign leaders and ‘experts’ will soften and lo and behold it will become clear the deals will be done.

Cameron has pushed back the activation of Article 50 until a new leader is elected – I predicted Here a couple of week ago that Theresa May will be elected – I think that should be more evident to people now but, get this, I don’t think that she will activate article 50 either, I think that she will call a general election and suggest that only after that should article 50 be invoked BUT as the electorate are going to the polls anyway, she’ll tag on another EU referendum having negotiated a better deal with the EU who will realise that they didn’t take the first negotiations seriously enough and I think that in that referendum the UK will vote to remain.

I’m not saying that this is what I want, I’m just posting here what I think will likely happen.

I’m sure readers will have their own predictions and I look forward to reading them


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How the EU destroyed Greece…

The seven simple steps to plunder a country’s assets.

Music by the Clash – Should I Stay or Should I Go?


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Thursday Is All About Democracy In The UK – And Whether We’ll Still Have It Afterwards

Lord Howard on BBC Newsnight explaining to Evan Davies his concerns about the supremacy of the EU Court of Justice, and why he supports leaving the EU.

‘People don’t understand that the European Court of Justice now has the power to overrule Acts of Parliament. It’s already overruled an Act of the Scottish Parliament.’


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O Mio Babbino Caro

The Friday Night Song.


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Why Labelling All Brexiteers As Extremists Is Dangerous


Yesterday’s horrific murder of Jo Cox MP was an attack on our democracy and should be condemned by all without equivocation. That said, the Daily Star headline (above), and the echoes, whether directly or by calculated implication, in a great many comments on Social Media over the last 24 hours is extremely dangerous for our country. The suggestion is that those who wish to leave the EU are extremists, those like me, who want to take back sovereignty from the EU are routinely described as “Little Englanders”, “Xenophobes” or “Racist”.

Consistently over the last few months, 50% of those polled support a withdrawal from the EU and fairly consistently, the other 50% have been regularly abusing them with these kind of insults. When I first wrote here about the EU referendum back in February it was in a debate with journalist Peter Jukes, what was the very first issue I raised?

Jon – Can we agree from the outset, that the overwhelming majority of those who’ll be voting in the EU referendum on 23rd June later this year will do so because they hold honestly held, sometimes strongly held, opinions, whether they vote for the UK to remain within the EU or to leave?

There is likely to be increasingly intemperate commentary in the country over the coming months and if, on the one hand, those wishing to remain within the EU characterise or caricature those who disagree with them as xenophobes or anti-European, or on the other hand, those who wish to leave the EU paint their opponents as unpatriotic or national self-flagellants who have no faith in Britain’s ability to govern itself, then the important issues that are needed to inform any decision the electorate have to make will be lost in a deluge personal insults.

The Needle

Remember that polling is regularly showing around 50% support for leaving the EU, yet at last year’s general election only 12.6% voted for UKIP this on a turnout of 66.4% ; at the last European election in 2014 UKIP support was 27.5% on a turnout of only 35.6%.

At the European elections,  UKIP received 4,376,635 in 2015 they received 3,881,099 votes but they didn’t field candidates in every constituency. What we see is that the UKIP vote is determined and very consistent.

Now, I believe the UK should leave the EU but I have never supported or voted for UKIP, given this opportunity to vote in a referendum on the UK’s membership of the EU I’ll be casting my vote to leave but my politics are moderate and near the centre. I do not believe that wishing to have an independent UK is in any way an extreme political position and I’m sure that many have voted for UKIP not because they want a UKIP government but because they have nobody else to vote for other than political parties that are even more right wing than UKIP.

But here is the point, if around 4 million people in the UK support UKIP and if polls are correct about 30 million (50%) of the UK want to leave the EU, then that is 26 million people who could not bring themselves to vote for UKIP and who are not represented by the more mainstream political parties on this important issue.

Where are they to go ?

It’s important to differentiate between political parties and those that vote for them.

According to the latest party press releases and media estimates (at 11 August 2015): –

The Conservative Party has around 149,800 members, as of December 2013.

The Labour Party has around 270,000 members, as of August 2015.

The Scottish National Party has around 110,000 members, as of June 2015.

The Liberal Democrat Party has 61,000 members, as of May 2015.

UKIP has around 42,000 members, as of January 2015.

The Green Party (England and Wales) has 61,000 members, as of June 2015.


So, if we accept these figures, and there is no reason not to, then the number of people in the UK who are members of the main political parties is around 695,000, or about 1% of the UK population. Let’s be extremely generous and make it 1.1% of the population and include Plaid Cymru and the parties in Northern Ireland

This 1.1% are very important indeed because they select parliamentary candidates and who is on the party list at European elections.

Of the main political parties all but UKIP and the Democratic Unionist Party are for remaining the EU in the referendum.

My point with all of this should be plain; if 50% of the UK want to leave the EU and the main political parties (about 1.1%)  and Remain supporters ( 50%) continue to misrepresent those that wish to leave as right wing, nationalist, bigoted, ignorant, racist, xenophobic extremists then where are the 50% of Brexiteers to put their cross at future elections ?

For Labour especially, this could be a very dangerous issue because Labour are presently attempting to make this a party political issue by misrepresenting a Leave vote with support for a right wing Tory Government led by Boris Johnson. By doing this the Labour Party risks driving working class people that might otherwise support them into the arms of political extremists.

If the main political parties continue to describe or imply that  those that wish to vote to leave the EU are right wing, nationalist, bigoted, ignorant, racist, xenophobic extremists – if the UK’s mainstream political centre, as construed and delineated by only 1.1% of parties membership, defines 50% of the UK as ignorant extremists, and they continue to only have few moderate voices representing them,  then I fear for the consequences for our country.

Where do I and the other moderate Brexiteers go after the 23rd when the political elites that run our parties have treated us with such disdain ?


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Switzerland Withdraw Dormant EU Application (Why Now?)

Yesterday, the Swiss Senate voted to withdraw its EU application from 1992 and their Foreign Minister made clear that they would “modernise its bilateral relationship” with the EU.

Parliament has voted to withdraw Switzerland’s dormant application to join the European Union.

The Senate voted on Wednesday to approve a motion from the House of Representatives that essentially calls the old application meaningless. It now falls to the cabinet to communicate this to the EU.

Foreign Minister Didier Burkhalter said the cabinet would convey the message that Switzerland’s application for EU membership is invalid and should be withdrawn. At the same time, they’ll have to reiterate Switzerland’s determination to modernise its bilateral relationship.

So, what is going on ? Why, after 24 years have the Swiss decided to formally withdraw this dormant EU application ?

Perhaps, this article from last week in the German Die Zeit  may help explain things – apologies for the poor translation but you’ll get the gist.

The Swiss even shared the same national anthem. “Hail, Helvetia”, sing the Swiss lustily. On party days, internationals, on August 1, combines the flickering bonfires. The melody said: God save the Queen, the British national anthem . Only in 1961 Switzerland receives its own psalm. Since then “the morning skies” contact the Confederates in a slow rhythm. The queen is silent.

The borrowed anthem is an anecdote certainly, but much more: it shows what Switzerland and the UK connects. The remembrance. The ghost. The political culture. These special relations exist today, since the British vote in two weeks on the withdrawal from the European Union.
In all other European countries, fearing the political establishment before the exit Day. Only right-wing populist and notorious EU phobics hope for the great quake on the island. Unlike in Switzerland, here ogling politicians from left to right with the Proposed referendum on United Kingdom membership of the European Union . Open and public.

A former National Green said: The withdrawal from the EU from Britain would “strengthen Swiss position with respect to the bilateral and regulating the movement of persons crucial”.

A former foreign minister would certainly vote against a Proposed referendum on United Kingdom membership of the European Union, if they could. Nevertheless, it promises to be much of a United Kingdom, which is outside the Union – and is located together with the Confederation in the Efta: “The UK in this ‘second circle’ of European countries would be more interesting for Switzerland as the current status quo.”

An FDP National weibelt already for this “Super-Efta” in Brussels and London. While the president of the CVP stirs hope among his flock: “Even the discussion of the Proposed referendum on United Kingdom membership of the European Union is an opportunity.”

Chance, so luck, do the Swiss. Your relationship with the EU is on the rocks, since they have accepted the mass immigration initiative two years ago. Until February 9, 2017, the petition must be implemented. Must immigration be controlled again in Bern. With quotas, maximum figures, with a national priority. It says so in the Constitution. But such an Article 121a bites with the bilateral agreements.

Die Zeit

So, why now ?

Simple – because the Swiss see Brexit as a big opportunity to join forces with the UK and negotiate better terms with the EU. Better controls on immigration, and a smaller contribution to the EU coffers.

The Swiss are sending a clear message to the people of Great Britain – ‘Vote to Leave, and we’ll stand with you.’


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Brexit: Facts Not Fear

“Men fight for liberty and win it with hard knocks. Their children, brought up easy, let it slip away again, poor fools. And their grandchildren are once more slaves.” – DH Lawrence


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Sir Clement Freud Was A Paedophile

At one point we were looking at Clement Freud but the allegation alluded to a Liberal MP and boys, not girls. The allegation was made by Des Wilson in The Mail (below). Freud was checked in connection but we felt that the  Isle of Ely, Cambridgeshire, was not far enough north of Watford given the 3 hour train journey from London mentioned in the article..

Then there was the local party leader from well to the north of  Watford who had to be woken from his bed on many a Friday and Saturday night to attend a local police station and rescue his MP from trouble after he had been picked up in one dubious circumstance or another. This MP once asked me to travel for three hours to speak to his local party one Friday evening. When I arrived at his house he was just welcoming two attractive ‘boys’ who had also travelled from London on the same train. I was put in a taxi and sent to the meeting without even the offer of dinner while the MP headed to some dodgy backstreet club with his much younger friends.

Daily Mail

Ladie's Day At Royal Ascot - Day 3...ASCOT, UNITED KINGDOM - JUNE 22: Writer Sit Clement Freud attends Ladies Day on the third day of Royal Ascot at the Ascot Racecourse on June 22, 2006 in Berkshire, England. The event has been one of the highlights of the racing and social calendar since 1711, and the royal patronage continues today with a Royal Procession taking place in front of the grandstands daily. (Photo by Anwar Hussein/Getty Images)

Sir Clement Freud, the former broadcaster and politician, was exposed last night as a paedophile who sexually abused girls as young as 10 for decades.

Freud, who died in 2009, spent years abusing a girl who he brought up as a daughter, and violently raped a teenager while he was an MP.

His widow, Lady Freud, has apologised to his victims, saying she is “shocked, deeply saddened and profoundly sorry” for what her husband of 58 years did to them.

Detectives investigating the disappearance of Madeleine McCann have been alerted to the fact that Freud had a villa in Praia da Luz, Portugal, the resort where the three-year-old went missing in 2007.

He befriended the McCanns in the weeks after their daughter went missing, entertaining them at his house on two occasions and keeping in contact by phone and email.

The McCanns are said to be “horrified” by the discovery that Freud was a paedophile.

The Telegraph


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The Truth About #Brexit


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Don’t Look Back In Anger

The Friday Night Song

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Theresa May At 6-1 To Be Next Tory Leader Is worth A Punt


I’m not generally a betting man; I make an appearance at my local bookie once a year to put a few quid each way on the Grand National but that’s about it normally. However, I couldn’t resist putting £10 on Theresa May at 6-1 to become the next permanent leader of the Conservative Party. I tried to get odds at Ladbrokes on her becoming the next Prime Minister because in all likelihood the next Tory Leader will become the next Prime Minister as David Cameron has already stated that he will step down before the next General Election; the odds might have just been a little longer but they were unable to offer odds on that outcome.

Still, 6-1 seems like fantastic odds and to understand why you need to understand the Tory Leadership process. WestminsterAdvisors describe it thus:

The Tories’ process for picking a leader is twofold: Conservative MPs narrow the field to two choices, before a postal ballot of the wider membership of the party is conducted.

The Chairman of the 1922 Committee, which represents Conservative MPs, acts as the returning officer for leadership elections. Graham Brady is currently serving in this post. The Conservative Whip receives nominations from members of the House of Commons, and the deadline is noon “on a Thursday”.

If one nomination is received, the new leader is declared elected. If two nominations are made, both names go forward for the members of the party to decide between. In the event that three or more MPs are nominated for leader, a ballot of Conservative MPs is held “on the Tuesday immediately following the closing date for nominations”. The ballot is held under the first past the post system. If MPs are choosing between four or more candidates, the candidate with the lowest number of votes is eliminated and further ballots are held on subsequent Thursdays and Tuesdays until only two MPs remain.

The wider membership of the Conservative party then chooses between these two MPs, with the vote being held via a postal ballot. The returning officer chooses the date by which ballots have to be returned and the count begins at noon that day. The result is announced at a meeting of the parliamentary party and “representative members”.

Conservative members of Parliament will decide which two candidate’s names will go on the ballot for Conservative Party members to vote on. While the other two main leadership favourites, George Osborne (5-1) and Boris Johnson (2-1), are kicking lumps out of each and exaggerating the case for the Remain and Leave campaigns in the EU Referendum, feisty filly Theresa May could be set to pip them to the post. The Home Secretary, while ostensibly wanting to remain within the EU, has made no substantive comment with regards to the referendum other that to indicate that in her view the UK should leave the European Court of Justice.

Regardless of the EU referendum result the Conservatives will be a divided party and Tory members of Parliament are likely to view Theresa May as the unity candidate and the party membership may well reach the same conclusion. George Osborne now seems unlikely to have enough support within the Party membership even if he makes the ballot, whereas Boris Johnson is unlikely to have enough support within the Parliamentary Party to govern comfortably, remember Iain Duncan Smith’s brief leadership of the Tories.

Naturally, nothing is certain in politics and anything might happen but Theresa May has positioned herself very nicely and as long as she doesn’t do something stupid like alienate the party membership with a outrageous last minute public intervention in the EU debate, she looks to be in with a very good chance.Even if she isn’t yet the favourite, much better than 6-1 in my opinion and therefore worth a punt.




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Dr Morris Fraser: The Paedophile Doctor

Chris Moore investigates why child psychiatrist Dr Morris Fraser, a convicted paedophile, was not struck off by the General Medical Council.


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Boogie Wonderland

Friday Night Disco

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