Monthly Archives: June 2016

Brexit: What May The Future Hold ?

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Trying to predict the future is a fool’s game, the best that can be done is to raise issues that will likely become more prominent in the near future – whether they become reality or not is always going to be dependent on how the crucial players react.

A couple of weeks ago I raised the prospect of Theresa May becoming the next Tory leader and Prime Minister and now she is the bookies favourite to win the Conservative leadership contest. Last Friday, following David Cameron’s address to the nation I raised the possibility that there could be a second EU referendum, in the intervening period this has been a talking point in the country but I’m bound to say that the possibility of a second referendum is receding – that possibility was always dependent on the EU meeting the challenges of Brexit  with reform and it appears clear that the EU plans to respond with even closer union. How the EU intends to persuade citizens in Europe to accept this is unclear – it looks like they won’t bother and will attempt to drive it through without consulting the people and, as a consequence, it is an ambition that is bound to fail; even if EU leaders feign confidence and it looks like a promising prospect in the short term – it will result in referenda rejecting this plan or if the people are not consulted, very dangerous civil disturbance across the continent. This could be met with tolerance, in which case there will be grinding instability over the short to medium term – or robustly, which could result in civil war in some countries.

I think two further potential consequences should be raised now.

The first is that if President Obama continues to sit on the sidelines it becomes increasingly likely that Donald Trump will become the next US President. It needs to be understood that if Trump were to make trade cooperation with the UK a priority for his new administration and central plank of his election campaign and Obama sticks to his “back of the queue” ultimatum then Hilary Clinton will be at a severe disadvantage in the run up to the Presidential elections in November.

This is not pie in the sky, this is a very real potential consequence of Brexit. It would be an extremely emotive and powerful tool in Trump’s bid to become President, and Trump knows which buttons to press, what will rally his potential constituency to turn out and elect him.

The second important point that I think should be raised is that NATO could disband – the EU has effectively declared economic war on the UK, talk of punishment is a threat Western leaders will hope is just talk and the immediate emotional reaction of EU officials but I suspect it is not; add to this the EU interfering in the internal politics of the UK, agitating for its break-up, and it is difficult to see how the UK can remain within a NATO, pledged to come to the aid of the EU in the event of Russian belligerence. The UK is very unlikely to be attacked itself, it would be militarily and strategically foolish for Russia to attack the UK directly but if the EU is intent on waging an economic war on the UK then why would the UK continue to share intelligence or sacrifice British lives in defence of the EU ?

This might seem extremely unlikely but I think it is now more likely than many people realise.

For Britons, we need to remember that Great Britain has stood alone before, that a great many Britons have sacrificed a great deal more for Democracy and Sovereignty than we are ever likely to have to, and that if the EU abandon the principles of democracy in pursuit of an ideology that sees bureaucrats and technocrats govern, and multi-national financial interests  benefit, while the vast majority of Europeans become poorer – then it is creating an unstable and dangerous situation.

Great Britain need not do anything other than stand firm. 

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EU Plans to Become Superstate

If true, we Brexited just in time…

EU Documents signed by both the French and German foreign mimisters released by the Polish channel TVP.INFO on 27th June 2016;

TVP.INFO

The main assumptions of the document:

• Member countries without the right to its own army and special services.
• The unification of criminal law and the tax system.
• Member without their own currency and central bank.
• Uniform visa system.
• A common foreign policy with other countries and international organizations.
• Limited role of NATO.

TVP.INFO

(From TVP.INFO – watermark removed only to aid reading clarity);
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Get Down

The Friday Night Song

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The Morning After The Day Before. What Next?

Now that the UK have voted to leave the EU it is time to reflect and attempt to predict what will happen next.

Firstly, on the economy. Unfortunately the economic scare-mongering was always going to be a self-fulfilling prophesy and it was one of the reasons that David Cameron and George Osborne’s campaign was so irresponsible. Right now investors are betting on what they’ve been told but within a week the markets will have settled.

The threats of foreign leaders and ‘experts’ will soften and lo and behold it will become clear the deals will be done.

Cameron has pushed back the activation of Article 50 until a new leader is elected – I predicted Here a couple of week ago that Theresa May will be elected – I think that should be more evident to people now but, get this, I don’t think that she will activate article 50 either, I think that she will call a general election and suggest that only after that should article 50 be invoked BUT as the electorate are going to the polls anyway, she’ll tag on another EU referendum having negotiated a better deal with the EU who will realise that they didn’t take the first negotiations seriously enough and I think that in that referendum the UK will vote to remain.

I’m not saying that this is what I want, I’m just posting here what I think will likely happen.

I’m sure readers will have their own predictions and I look forward to reading them

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How the EU destroyed Greece…

The seven simple steps to plunder a country’s assets.


Music by the Clash – Should I Stay or Should I Go?

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Thursday Is All About Democracy In The UK – And Whether We’ll Still Have It Afterwards

Lord Howard on BBC Newsnight explaining to Evan Davies his concerns about the supremacy of the EU Court of Justice, and why he supports leaving the EU.

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‘People don’t understand that the European Court of Justice now has the power to overrule Acts of Parliament. It’s already overruled an Act of the Scottish Parliament.’

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Tusk

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