Brexit: What May The Future Hold ?


Trying to predict the future is a fool’s game, the best that can be done is to raise issues that will likely become more prominent in the near future – whether they become reality or not is always going to be dependent on how the crucial players react.

A couple of weeks ago I raised the prospect of Theresa May becoming the next Tory leader and Prime Minister and now she is the bookies favourite to win the Conservative leadership contest. Last Friday, following David Cameron’s address to the nation I raised the possibility that there could be a second EU referendum, in the intervening period this has been a talking point in the country but I’m bound to say that the possibility of a second referendum is receding – that possibility was always dependent on the EU meeting the challenges of Brexit  with reform and it appears clear that the EU plans to respond with even closer union. How the EU intends to persuade citizens in Europe to accept this is unclear – it looks like they won’t bother and will attempt to drive it through without consulting the people and, as a consequence, it is an ambition that is bound to fail; even if EU leaders feign confidence and it looks like a promising prospect in the short term – it will result in referenda rejecting this plan or if the people are not consulted, very dangerous civil disturbance across the continent. This could be met with tolerance, in which case there will be grinding instability over the short to medium term – or robustly, which could result in civil war in some countries.

I think two further potential consequences should be raised now.

The first is that if President Obama continues to sit on the sidelines it becomes increasingly likely that Donald Trump will become the next US President. It needs to be understood that if Trump were to make trade cooperation with the UK a priority for his new administration and central plank of his election campaign and Obama sticks to his “back of the queue” ultimatum then Hilary Clinton will be at a severe disadvantage in the run up to the Presidential elections in November.

This is not pie in the sky, this is a very real potential consequence of Brexit. It would be an extremely emotive and powerful tool in Trump’s bid to become President, and Trump knows which buttons to press, what will rally his potential constituency to turn out and elect him.

The second important point that I think should be raised is that NATO could disband – the EU has effectively declared economic war on the UK, talk of punishment is a threat Western leaders will hope is just talk and the immediate emotional reaction of EU officials but I suspect it is not; add to this the EU interfering in the internal politics of the UK, agitating for its break-up, and it is difficult to see how the UK can remain within a NATO, pledged to come to the aid of the EU in the event of Russian belligerence. The UK is very unlikely to be attacked itself, it would be militarily and strategically foolish for Russia to attack the UK directly but if the EU is intent on waging an economic war on the UK then why would the UK continue to share intelligence or sacrifice British lives in defence of the EU ?

This might seem extremely unlikely but I think it is now more likely than many people realise.

For Britons, we need to remember that Great Britain has stood alone before, that a great many Britons have sacrificed a great deal more for Democracy and Sovereignty than we are ever likely to have to, and that if the EU abandon the principles of democracy in pursuit of an ideology that sees bureaucrats and technocrats govern, and multi-national financial interests  benefit, while the vast majority of Europeans become poorer – then it is creating an unstable and dangerous situation.

Great Britain need not do anything other than stand firm. 


Filed under News, Politics

21 responses to “Brexit: What May The Future Hold ?

  1. Tom Austin

    Ah, while the ships of State may play about the park-pond of Politics, swanlike and serene. All is not quiet below the surface.
    I, for one, am not content – to say the least.
    So…I started a petition, which is now taxiing towards take-off…
    [There will be some minor alterations before ‘cruising’ height is reached, but for now this is how it appears.]

  2. dpack

    and then there was one

    well done gojam, a well placed bet, hope you have fun with the winnings.

    im wondering what is going to be her strategy for sorting out the horrific mess she has inherited?

  3. dpack

    farage just quit as head of ukip so my prediction of a move further right either as ukip or as a new “acceptable face of the far right” party is about to be put to the test.

    winning is rarely so fatal to the leaders of the “winning”side, ten days on and most of the leave general staff officers have decided or been forced to miss the triumphal procession.

    • dpack

      gollum got a shove into the lava without ever grasping the rings leaving the next pm to be chosen from a “christian mother” with a dodgy cv and a penchant for denying the undeniable at every opportunity and a woman who thought butler sloss and then the chum of leon were a good choice for the cai .
      that choice will be made by the members of the tory party who number around 130000 at best estimates. so much for “taking back control” and leaving the undemocratic eu.

      whichever gets the job will start on day one looking;
      at a pound /dollar parity.
      at a very fragile economy and treasury.
      at a very angry and divided population.
      at the prospect of trying to secure 40% of our export market and 60% of our food supply.
      to protect eu citizens and uk/eu citizens both here and on the mainland.
      at trying to promise enough that numerous companies do not totally relocate to the mainland.
      at whether to either encourage or try to prevent scotland ceding from the uk.
      to sort out the fast developing ni situation and so on down a huge list of dreadful jobs that the next pm will have in the in tray.

      that is a brief list of stuff directly related to the stunning mismanagement of her predecessor there will also be the list of all the more usual stuff .

      that either of them want the job should rule them out on the grounds of irrationality before one gets to problems posed by their personal qualities and the undemocratic process that is about to give them power,however brief and illusory over the fate of millions.

  4. Aardvark

    A legal bid to stop Brexit and Tony Blair thinks he’s the right man for the job. Constantly in the media promoting himself, Blair obviously feels confident that he has nothing to fear from Chilcott, after all, his Lawyers have been working overtime for seven years to secure such an outcome.

    • dpack

      this piece from robert fisk seems to sum up the blair/chilcot issues and is relevant to the eu referendum débâcle and it’s fallout as well as addressing the wider malaise in political life.

      • Aardvark

        Against all common sense, why would Blair have led us into an illegal war in Iraq, there must have been pressure, the Bush administration were far too persuasive, was blackmail involved and Murdoch, even Blair’s spin doctor Campbell, mentioned about the lobbying.

        Yes, the whole system stinks, it is not just about Blair, not just the political establishment and their constant lies and misinformation, but also the nasty, divisive media, which promotes the establishment’s ideologies and a hierarchical social system, which keeps the masses ignorant and powerless.

        • Tom Austin

          I second your commotion.
          I only a moment ago wrote this btl in today’s Guardian…
          “Well, whodathunkit.
          A newspaper’s sole purpose may not be to sell more newspapers:Extra, extra – read all about it, extra!
          Must we wait until next week for the Media’s ‘Mea-culpa’, or perhaps ‘tomorrow’?
          It’s not as if there is no tsunami of self-exculpation rolled-up with this assault on one solitary fool.
          Care should be taken by everybody that may opine that ‘we knew this all along’.
          Blair may well be responsible for bringing shame upon us all, through destruction far afield.
          Yet, what did he do, what was he allowed to do, what was he cheered-on to do?
          That Dave did not, oh so recently?
          Where are the calls for an end to our ‘elective monarchy’?
          Or, a proposition that we instead enjoy a Parliamentary Democracy?
          The fault is ours. We stood by, while ‘democracy’ was forced upon others at the point of a gun, and still we do nothing to bring Democracy ‘home’.”

  5. Tfs

    Who runs the EU. 61:00 onwards will annoy…….

  6. dpack

    in other news some very relevant details regarding kincora

    as to maurice i find it quite plausible that he was there but suspect he was in the smiley role rather than as a clockmaker or for a “jolly”.
    much of the available data relating to him and to context would indicate that to be probably so.

    including maurice in a wider picture as to sis and ss barring gay officers it may have been policy but it was not always practice, especially if they proved themselves capable and resistant to blackmail.
    even being found to be working for the other side was not necessarily grounds for instant dismissal (blunt) and an unpleasant fate in jail or worse ,using such problems as opportunities if they can be willingly or unwittingly employed is central to spooking.
    (the “rumbled” of either sort working unwillingly under duress is a third but more dangerous option ).
    to believe that burgess or blunt were at the very back of a very dark closet on both setsof grounds seems rather silly (although hiding the kgb stuff seems easier than the orientation and activity stuff as the other party would always be discrete) and blunt was still spooking for uk based masters (im not certain who but i recon henniker is a prime candidate for handler/boss) after his 1963 confession and immunity from “all crimes”

    no dought more little details will emerge but the timing 1989 of an sis knowledge of events in and close to kincora and their context is very unlikely to be the first time they considered these matters.
    that they “cant find” any paperwork relating to their knowledge is no surprise.
    by1989 sis were looking into facilitating pacification of the troubles so an interest in earlier events makes sense at this time.

    record keeping is a big part of such activities but so is ensuring there is no record of some things, those seeking records now may be doing so in good faith but the sort of records that might still exist such as expenses chits,who was in the office at a certain time,who worked together on a different operation etc etc require considerable background knowledge to reveal their significance.
    some sort of ,at least partial paper trail will exist in the registry for almost everything that has happened in the last century but finding it in 100 million files and a couple of orders more documents is far beyond the proverbial needle in a haystack problem.

    sis may have known from an early stage but there is little data to suggest that the events most closely associated with kincora /mcgrath were their operations although there may well have been sis personnel involved in various aspects,knowingly or not.

  7. Losvanvan99

    I expected a second referendum on the grounds that Vote Leave was a government controlled ‘opposition’ and that BJ was positioned with Cameron’s agreement to control the aftermath, were the unexpected to happen and the UK to vote for BREXIT. With BJ now out of the running for PM, he is obviously in no place to control the negotiations with the EU nor to call a 2nd referendum.

    Theresa May was astonishingly quiet during the referendum campaign. I’m sure Cameron put a lot of pressure on her to campaign more forcefully for the UK to stay in the EU. Her silence was presumably to take advantage of the situation post-referendum. Expect her to justify her silence by saying that both sides of the debate had good arguments and that she had no strong view either way.

    The tone of Prime Ministerships are often set early on. May will not want to start by being bogged down by speculation of a second referendum in a year’s time. She will want to move forward, claiming that she is respecting the views of the British people as expressed in the referendum. There are already signs that the politicians running European economies as opposed to the EU bureaucrats dreaming of empire are prepared to be pragmatic.

    You are quite right to highlight the influence of the US Presidential election. I would suggest that Trump takes great care in his choice of bodyguards and that they invest in bullet proof vests.

  8. dpack

    boris has just shot himself ,well he has withdrawn from the poison challice contest of the tory leadership.

    eh up gojam ,you might be correct about may ,i didnt think she was daft enough to want the job.

    • Aardvark

      Think Boris also got stabbed in the back by golam gove, et tu Brute
      Styley! So it’s Terry May as Thatcher Mark II, god help Britain, the Irish have had to stop people applying for Irish passports, because of the sudden demand from the UK. Major for all his spitting image greyness, was right about the UK splitting after Brexit, some people, might have even been tactically voting for it, not all are of the ignorant racist variety.
      The bunker video is brilliant, just deserts to the dodgey schemers!

  9. tdf

    ‘Call me Dave’ may well have been foolish to announce the referendum in the first place, but he could have the last laugh. There is no parliamentary majority for Brexit, not even close. Johnson & Gove have been handed a hot potato.

  10. dpack

    one is certain that a lot of folk will be very displeased about the whole shambles which is very likely to result from the fallout from the process and from the results of that process whatever happens.

    the displeased is list can already be started from the top with dave who saw this an an exercise in pandering to his eurosceptic colleagues and getting some pro exit/ukip votes for his party when he proposed an advisory referendum prior to the 2015 general election and then actually had it arranged as he mistakenly thought the opinion of the public would have been to remain part of the eu having underestimate the various factors that would allow the out opinion to register just less than 2% more than the remain vote in a consultative referendum that seems to have been assumed to be a binding by various factions and about expelling all foreigners and brown folk to a significant proportion of others who when they realise that that was not and will not be a consequence (at least in the short term or by means that are currently legal and not at all if the new order wish to trade freely in europe which will insist not only on continuing residence but free movement of new migrants)will be very displeased.

    boris is almost certainly very displeased already as if he had lost gracefully as he expected he would have been in an ideal position to get dave’s job as it stands he might he might not get it and if he does he has been handed a poisoned chalice, as to be the pm who invoked a50 as his first job in office and then failed to satisfy (even after much wrangling with the eu and other parties) many out voters and makes them very displeased and makes all remainers very displeased as they did not want this in the first place is almost certainly not what he saw for his political epitaph.

    sometime the jester is the best political analyst so with that thought in mind here is an assessment of boris’s mood which seems spookily plausible.

  11. Aardvark

    Democracy and Sovereignty are of course important and Britain can stand ‘firm’, but you mention that the vast majority of Europeans will become poorer, when the Elephant in the room, is that the levels of poverty, that already exist in Britain are appauling and are only set to keep on growing. Theresa or Boris or any other Tory incumbant, have no intention of dealing with this fundamental of issues.

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  13. Tom Austin

    Ah yes, the mists are clearing…a picture is beginning to emerge…Parliament is being asked to vote to uphold or strike-down the referendum result. There’s all to play for…
    Yes!! The votes have been counted; the UK is safe and we continue on as a member of the EU – just as we are at this minute.

    Yet more fun to be had here…