The Morning After The Day Before. What Next?

Now that the UK have voted to leave the EU it is time to reflect and attempt to predict what will happen next.

Firstly, on the economy. Unfortunately the economic scare-mongering was always going to be a self-fulfilling prophesy and it was one of the reasons that David Cameron and George Osborne’s campaign was so irresponsible. Right now investors are betting on what they’ve been told but within a week the markets will have settled.

The threats of foreign leaders and ‘experts’ will soften and lo and behold it will become clear the deals will be done.

Cameron has pushed back the activation of Article 50 until a new leader is elected – I predicted Here a couple of week ago that Theresa May will be elected – I think that should be more evident to people now but, get this, I don’t think that she will activate article 50 either, I think that she will call a general election and suggest that only after that should article 50 be invoked BUT as the electorate are going to the polls anyway, she’ll tag on another EU referendum having negotiated a better deal with the EU who will realise that they didn’t take the first negotiations seriously enough and I think that in that referendum the UK will vote to remain.

I’m not saying that this is what I want, I’m just posting here what I think will likely happen.

I’m sure readers will have their own predictions and I look forward to reading them

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33 Comments

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33 responses to “The Morning After The Day Before. What Next?

  1. Pingback: The Morning After The Day Before. What Next?Alternative News Network | Alternative News Network

  2. Kay

    Wow, didn’t think I could feel hopeful today. Thanks!

  3. Charlie

    I no longer wish to receive emails from the needleblog and will unsubscribe now. I am ashamed to think I have been influenced by some of the statements you print and never more so on your Brexit stance. My conscience is clear – I didn’t vote for it.

  4. bill h

    Gojam,

    Your claim that Cameron and Osborne’s predictions of economic troubles have actually caused those troubles is ridiculous. Are you seriously claiming that remarks by the leader and finance minister of a country producing about 2% of the world’s wealth can somehow cause convulsions in markets around the globe. Well I suppose if they had magical powers…..

    A more rational explanation is that they made such predictions because the Markets don’t like the uncertainty that events like Brexit, with no plan whatsoever for the future, give rise to.

    • Looks like I’m not the only one thinking this way –

      “So I would expect the UK’s negotiations with Brussels – ahead of an article 50 notification – to continue into next year. If there is a significantly better deal on offer, the new prime minister might choose to put it to the people – not, I suspect, by holding another referendum but by calling an early general election.”

      https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/24/brexit-won-vote-remain-eu-article-50-lisbon-treaty-referendum-david-cameron?CMP=share_btn_tw

      • Sabre

        I hope that the scenario alluded to doesn’t happen, however, it would be unwise to rule anything out. National Governments on behalf of the EU have been keen on granting multiple referenda until the electorate gets the answer ‘right’.

        A General Election posing as a mandate would be cynical in the extreme. No party will get 50+% of a 70+% turnout and as we all know all the Establishment parties would endorse the proposal anyway. If they do try it we can only hope that they will trigger even more of a shock by handing an up to now unthinkable majority to UKIP on a huge turnout or even electing a far left or far right government. If they insist on brinkmanship in order to frustrate the will of the people I hope that they end up achieving what they always supposed the EU was to prevent ( hardline left/right/Populist Government). They can have it the easy way or the hard way !

      • I think it looks less likely than when I wrote it given that EU (not nations of Europe) are playing hardball.

      • tdf

        ^ What deal? What do Brexiteers actually want, in real world terms?

        It strikes me that some of you want all of the benefits of EU membership, with none of the consequences and responsibilities.

      • Tom Austin

        …and a new hospital every week.

    • Sabre

      With 24 hour a day electronic trading the Lords of finance were going to make a killing either way. Armed with private polling and the first votes to come in trades would have been triggered to bump up sterling, these transactions are not real ‘transactions’ for a purpose the positions are held for seconds sometimes milliseconds, the pound rises the speculators sell and take the margin. The next votes come in, they look good for leave, another round of triggered trading takes place, the market goes short on the pound, it falls, another round of triggered trading takes place and the positions are closed. The margin is taken once more. Either way the transactions that are computer generated make profits whether the currency rises or falls. In fact the only scenario these sharks don’t like is a stable (non volatile) market. You can’t take a margin without the currency moving. Perhaps we should all refrain from participatory democracy lest some thieving bastards do what they were born to do?

      The EU which will inevitable encompass TTIP and the Trans Pacific Trade Partnership and NAFTA is precisely the setup that the Global Banksters and Corporations need to enable more efficient fleecing of every worker and consumer in the world. We take a short term hit and it will be short term but we start to free ourselves and inspire everyone else to do the same.

  5. Terry B

    So the refugees and asylum seekers will come to the UK because that’s nothing to do with the EU.
    When the trade deals are negotiated the EU will impose free movement as part of any agreement.

    So thing changes however we’ve got out self rule back from Brussels so Boris and his over privileged chums can continue selling off the NHS and fracking the country.

    I used to think the mostly likely Sci-Fi movie to come true was Soylent Green. The rich living in secure compounds protected by armed guards whilst everyone else lives in over crowed slums where there are daily food riots.
    Now I think we’re heading towards V for Vendetta. The US plunges in to civil war once Trump gets elected and tries to round up and inter all the Latinos and the UK ends up a fascist police state once Boris and his chums realise just how much they can get away with without anyone being able to appeal to Europe.

  6. RAC

    Never fails to amaze me, people can believe in democracy and a free vote, right up to the day after they lose.

  7. Decision has been made and cannot be changed.
    Cameron should have resigned hi government and called for General Election and this must be priority to determine the nature of our future relationship.
    Urgent need also for new constitutional settlement it questions of Federal UK, English Parliament and future locations of UIK and English Parliaments outside of metropolitan London…. also issue of new second chambers and re-examination of role of a non party political heredity head of state.
    We must concentrate on the long term implications and big picture.

  8. Tom Austin

    Democracy?
    What democracy;certainly not the UK’s variety of democracy – for that confers no decision making powers to referendum results.
    No, Dave gave the game away before the vote, when he declared that he would abide by the referendum result.
    Dave was for ‘Leave’ all along.

    The (near) future?
    We – the powerless masses, await the powerless elite’s master-plan to deal with the powerful. [This is why elections are held on a Thursday – so that nothing will happen for at least three days.]
    Can ‘we’ (the same ‘we’ as above) row-back on this ‘momentous’ decision that was made solely by Dave? Now that Dave has one foot out of the door.
    …meanwhile back at the ranch…
    27 of our erstwhile friends are licking their wounds (did you see that Polish MEP?) and licking their lips.

    But, anyway – democracy or not: The ball is at the feet of Brexit.
    And as ever their answer, they say, shall come from the right-wing of the Tory Party – and all points right of that.
    P.S.
    When do UKIP MEPs resign?
    When does the EU stop getting it’s fabled £350,000,000/week?

    • Sabre

      Tom,
      Instead of trying to counter your post, at this stage, I would like you to explain how you envisage the achievement of democracy via the EU?

      • Tom Austin

        Why not settle for an attempt at agreeing what Democracy means in the UK?
        -Referendums are purely advisory.
        -Dave unilaterally yields this before the vote.
        -Dave ‘goes’ yet stays – the Tory Government falls – yet is going strong.

        Where is Parliament in all of this?

        As things stand:All power is in the hands of one person, and that person wields that power purely to assist their own Party – assists their own Party to stay in Government.
        Looking at this another way; what role did the MSM play in all of this – what part should the media play?

        Is the fact of not having a written constitution really mean that anything goes?
        And what does any of this have to say about the nature of Democracy is the UK?

        And the ‘markets’?? How can democracy progress if a piece of software decides all things?

  9. Sabre

    The USA is already back tracking and Canada and Germany are making conciliatory noises.

    • I was thinking about USA today – Obama needs to come out and put UK to the front of the queue with a promise of a quick deal

      1) It will calm the markets

      2) Democrats can’t afford for this to be an election issue which Trump puts Clinton on the back foot with. Some people in the UK will not understand but the relationship between USA and UK people/emotion/history, in other words the US electorate – It could actually get Trump elected if Obama doesn’t take the initiative.

      One of the big regrets that the USA will have re: TTIP is that the UK were a friendly influence – that’s gone, probably the same with Ceta too.

      Don’t ignore Efta The Swiss have already indicated they want to renegotiate with the EU – Norway and Iceland will take the same opportunity. The question is, would those who voted out accept free movement with them – and if the Dutch, Sweden and Denmark came in, would free movement be an issue ?

      Not for me. The problem came because nations with very low standards of living from Eastern Europe had free movement.

      It is all very fascinating. In a week/month/year from now it will all look very different.

  10. Aardvark

    Thought this John Pilger article summed it up nicely.

    http://johnpilger.com/articles/why-the-british-said-no-to-europe

    • Tom Austin

      “may, just may, have struck a blow for real peace and democracy ”

      On the other hand, they have done the exact opposite.

  11. dpack

    -://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/25/boris-johnson-michael-gove-eu-liars

    Be careful what you wish for – you have now got it………….

    the turn on them bit is probably the most worrying aspect as it will be farage and those even further to the right than him who will use their weakness and the misplaced anti eu,migrant, forner and minority sentiments their campain has reinforced in what was the core of traditional labour supporters that has brought them this far most effectively .
    a credible opposition to that seems unlikely to be found in the hoc.

    the gotterdammerung of tory and labour leaderships is well under way ,i would not regret that for an instant if the alternative was not far worse and they seem to be crashing the economy in their death throes.

    as things stand with the likely exit agreement not even reducing immigration, let alone “sending em all back home” even if they were born here like their grandparents but they happen to be a bit brown, the chances of those who will give them what they want taking real power seem quite high either at or soon after a general election.

    boris and gove have lied and ignored the evidence and expert testimony more than most politicians which is quite an achievement .

    an oxford classics education should have taught boris about the year of the 4 emperors and i expect he knows the fate that awaits him.
    gove is a pal of murdoch and perhaps believes that is enough to save him from his place in history even if his time at oxford made him familiar with the works of tolkien.

    expanding on the above seems pointless at the mo as many of the details are yet to emerge but the die is cast how it will land is unknown as it bounces along the crap table but the first landing point is here and can be expanded upon

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3659842/No-Polish-vermin-Police-investigating-laminated-cards-reading-leave-EU-home-scum-posted-doors.html

    tis a small thing but it is an example of the mindset that has been reinforced by this .

    my first polish friend was my school mates dad, jan, who i knew for 40 yrs until his death.
    he left warsaw aged 12 by himself in winter 1940 and evaded nazis as he made his way on foot to persia ,he wasnt too happy in the refugee camp so he carried on to north africa. where when he asked to join the royal artillery aged 14 they asked how he got there,when he told them they put his age down as 18.he fought in north africa,italy and further north.
    ace chap ,good socialist ,union rep and local councillor he didnt like nazis much.
    i could tell quite a few stories like that and some even more extreme ones from the lives of polish folk as to why the real patriotic brits and poles should always be allies and the sort of things that happen when some people decide to encourage and exploit xenophobia and racism.

    i dont like nazis much either and dont consider farage to be one in the usually accepted sense but if he fails to become one he will soon be replaced or bypassed by events far from the westminster elites.

    whether or not we eventually get a vespasian to restore some semblance of order ,the rule of law and perhaps even mitigate the origins of the problems by working for the common good is the greatest unknown.

    nero is dying of his self inflicted wound, galba has been doomed by his success, gollum you thought you were in a different analogy but your volcano awaits, farage you are not napoleon taking the crown from the gutter you are otho, vitellus is in the obscurity of the mob and vespasian is yet to be discovered and may never be.
    eat that boris

    ps cameron gets my vote for the most destructive pm in history however this develops.

  12. dpack

    out of westminster

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/brexit-eu-referendum-racial-racism-abuse-hate-crime-reported-latest-leave-immigration-a7104191.html

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/26/racist-incidents-feared-to-be-linked-to-brexit-result-reported-in-england-and-wales

    in westminster a 2 civil wars begin

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2016/jun/26/brexit-live-jeremy-corbyn-sacks-hilary-benn-tory-leadership
    a week is a long time in politics ,so is half an hour, the above is now ten out.

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/top-tories-line-up-stop-8285879
    turkeys voting for christmas ? or galba’s rapid promotion? either seems an appropriate comment on wanting to be a tory pm at the mo.

    to set the scene for the third and waiting for the inevitable general election after which he might find himself playing otho is farage

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3660536/Nigel-Farage-predicts-Britain-enter-recession.html.

    his victory speech included the words “without a shot being fired” ,he seems to have had a very short memory on that occasion and his creative use of reality as above should stand him in good stead for the role.

    how any of this will effect the attempts of those who post here and the many others working in various ways to expose and end the deep corruptions within Political and civil life is very hard to predict but it seems likely many will be too busy elsewhere and too few watching to build effectively on what has been achieved so far until some sort of sense and some form of business as usual are restored.

    whatever our differences over this sorry debacle i hope we all continue to work together to finish the task we have started.

    • Aardvark

      Dpack it’s extremely important that the focus of this forum is not lost, after all the power, corruption and lies you discuss, are at the root of the chaos we now find our selves in.

      Your analogy of the Emperors is very fitting, but is also a reminder of something the European President Jose Manuel Barroso said in 2007 “I like to compare the EU as a creation to the organisation of Empire.” The question is, whose Empire, after reading many of your informative posts on Gladio etc I wonder if you agree with this article or not?

      http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/04/27/the-european-union-always-was-a-cia-project-as-brexiteers-discov/

      The rise in right wing, racist abuse since the referendum is extremely worrying. The gross inequalities that exist in British society can only act as a tinder stick at these times, what is it, 35 thousand pounds a year for an Eton education and then University education fees, the divisions are only set to get worse as the younger generations from poorer backgrounds have been fleeced. That so many traditional Labour supporters are so disaffected, that they will end up even voting UKIP, as they have done in Wales, is due to sheer desperation. The Blair Government, which offered so much hope after Thatcher, sold them out. Just take one look at Blair’s own personal accumulation of wealth though property, to see where his Tory values lie and then see the New Labour project as the divisive continuation of Thatcher lite, which has torn the Country apart. The banks in all this greed accumulation and bust have still, never been held to account.

      The seismic effects we are seeing in the two main political parties, already existed, simmering. If the dormant volcanoes have blown, they needed to, for there are at least 4 political parties within the 2. pretending otherwise has led to the constant infighting and to inauthentic agendas, after all, didn’t Nero, I mean Cameron, try to appease his broken party, by arrogantly throwing them the Referendum in the first place?

      • Tom Austin

        The only way to cut through the crap…
        Is for us all to accept the truth – the actual truth, about this referendum.
        -It should end in the same terms that it was begun.
        The same Politician began this as turned the whole thing on its head – Dave.
        To get to a place where we can all stand together is to accept the original premise of the referendum – that it was to be a measure of the national mood, and advisory only as far as Parliament was concerned.
        What is becoming more plain by the day is that what people were told in order to get them to vote has not survived the light of day.
        No £350,000,000 a week for this that or tuther.
        No determined reduction in immigration.
        No ‘control’ in anybody’s hands.
        [Whether it can help or hinder, it is only true to say that I usually go under the name of ‘Oudeis’ or Oudeis1 in the Guardian -FYI]

      • dpack

        the post ww2/cold war interests of the american military industrial complex and it’s foreign policy as expressed through the cia among many other vectors did indeed have a part in creating the eu.
        however the eu has grown beyond that original concept and is on the brink of acting as a superpower (2 sets of nukes,a large trading block etc etc).
        osama bin laden was a creation of the cia and popular with them when he was fighting russians but look how things turned out.

        i could argue that the brexit moves are a means to weaken an infant superpower .
        for instance once the member states discovered the nature of the ttip deal that the usa was trying to broker with the eu france and germany said they would veto it,the uk gov was all for it.
        among many other things that version of ttip would remove any environmental or economic damage limitation laws that did not apply in the usa to the corporations involved in a european operation.considering those safeguards are what has prevented large scale onshore gas fracking,cbm extraction and ucg from being conducted in the uk so far .

        consider that boris is dual nationality usa/uk and gove’s owner, murdoch, now a usa citizen and a major investor in genie energy (see golan hts etc) among his many activities and whatever it says on the front of house extreme energy company letterhead the real beneficiaries of contracts and by direct investments are mostly usa owned groups such as the likes of halliburton ,the major oil companies etc etc.

        a uk brexit and perhaps even the subsequent weakening or end to the eu might be seen as a good idea to the darker side of american foreign policy.

        an intended or perhaps under considered consequence of unleashing a brexit campain has been the rise of farage and those even more extreme in their intent to a point where it seems plausible that farage will be next pm but one and the new brownshirts are already on the streets have already shouting at any brown folk ,forners and so on “we won now f### off home” and generally expressing such sentiments as though they are normal,sensible and acceptable.if they realise that their brexit leadership has no intention of deporting indian doctors and 4th generation pakistani peers they are likely to change their leaders which if their leader is pm brings us on to the next problems.who would want to trade with a nation who had just expelled (or worse)folk from their country or was in the middle of a civil war/war of independence.i dont see many new investments in such places elsewhere ,well projects to gain influence with one or other warlord aside or ones where you bomb it,your mates rebuild it badly at a vast expense to your exchequer and you bomb it again.

        if it was a simple as divorcing one set of trade deals and creating a new set or the british people actually engaging in politics to make their lives better rather than turkeys voting for christmas or for ethnic cleansing when the only thing originally and legally on offer was an advisory referendum to inform the gov our views on the nature of our alliances i would not have a problem with it.

        as the political class is imploding and most of the brexit leaders are backtracking on the lies they peddled while delaying article 50 or choosing a pm who then triggers it or calls a general election at the mo and seem likely to continue with that for some time events at street level may become the major issue .

        as to taking back control and regaining democracy tis worth remembering you are subjects of an unelected hereditary monarch and much of the political and economic power is in the hands of a hereditary elite,do i hear the creak of tumbril wheels yet?

  13. dpack

    The European Parliament,
    – having regard to Rule 123(2) of its Rules of Procedure,

    1. Takes note of the wish of the citizens of the United Kingdom to leave the EU; points out that the will expressed by the people must be entirely and fully respected, starting with the immediate activation of Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union (TEU);
    2. Stresses that this is a critical moment for the EU: the interests and expectations of the Union’s citizens must be brought back to the centre of the debate; the European project must be relaunched now;
    3. Stresses that the will of the citizens of the United Kingdom should be respected via a swift and coherent implementation of the withdrawal procedure;
    4. Points out that negotiations under Article 50 TEU concerning the UK’s withdrawal from the EU must begin as soon as formal notification has been communicated;
    5. Warns that in order to prevent damaging uncertainty for everyone and to protect the Union’s integrity, the notification stipulated in Article 50 TEU must take place immediately; consequently asks the UK Prime Minister to notify the outcome of the referendum to the European Council of 28-29 June; this notification will launch the withdrawal procedure;
    6. Recalls that the settlement agreed by the heads of state or government in February 2016 stipulated that it would only enter into force if the UK decided to stay in the EU; it is therefore null and void;
    7. Recalls that any new relationship between the UK and the EU may not be agreed before the conclusion of the withdrawal agreement;
    8. Recalls that the consent of the European Parliament is required under the Treaties, and that it must be fully involved at all stages of the various procedures concerning the withdrawal agreement and any future relationship;
    9. Invites the Council to appoint the Commission as negotiator on Article 50 TEU;
    10. Stresses that the current challenges require reflection on the future of the EU: there is a need to reform the Union and make it better and more democratic; notes that while some Member States may choose to integrate more slowly or to a lesser extent, the core of the EU must be reinforced and à la carte solutions should be avoided; considers that the need to promote our common values, provide stability, social justice, sustainability, growth and jobs, overcome persistent economic and social uncertainty, protect citizens and address the challenge of migration requires developing and democratising, in particular, the Economic and Monetary Union and the area of freedom, security and justice, as well as strengthening the common foreign and security policy; considers therefore that the reforms must result in a Union which delivers what citizens expect;
    11. Calls for a roadmap for a better Union based on exploiting the Lisbon Treaty to the full, to be completed by a Treaty revision;
    12. Indicates that Parliament’s contribution to this reform will be based in particular on its reports on improving the functioning of the European Union building on the potential of the Lisbon Treaty, on budgetary capacity for the Eurozone and on possible evolutions and adjustments of the current institutional set-up of the European Union;
    13. Will enact changes in its internal organisation to reflect the will of the citizens of the United Kingdom to withdraw from the European Union;
    14. Calls on the President of the Commission to reallocate the portfolio of the UK Commissioner with immediate effect;
    15. Calls on the Council to change the order of its Presidencies to prevent the process of withdrawal from jeopardising the management of the day-to-day business of the Union;
    16. Instructs its President to forward this resolution to the European Council, the Council, the Commission, the European Central Bank, the national parliaments and the Government of the UK.

    published today by the eu ,it seems pretty clear that they dont see this as an advisory ref.and they are very cross.

    welcome to shopping in moscow in 1970 til you can buy american cheese

    • Aardvark

      What, no more Roquefort! 1848 was the perfect year for Revolutions, Britain missed it’s opportunity, it would have been a whole lot less problematic then (Denmark managed it without spilling much blood!) and would have saved us all the mess we are in now. For the electorate to actually engage in any meaningful political discourse, surely a decent education system is a prerequisite? The Scottish are in control of their eduction system, hence their active engagement and passion for politics. It is not surprising that the education system in so many poor areas of England and Wales is failing, otherwise they might just be getting ideas!

  14. dpack

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/jun/27/paedophile-campaigners-douglas-slade-christopher-skeaping-convicted-sexual-assaults

    at least two scumbags are getting some justice dispensed,decades too late it seems but hopefully they wont be back offending for a while.

  15. dpack

    returning to the what next theme in another place someone dismissed farage as an idiot,here are my thoughts regarding him.

    unfortunately farage is many things but idiot aint one of them.

    part1 political acumen

    he is a very astute politician who has created and used his public performances to woo the disenfranchised of the old labour power base,the right of the little englander tories and also absorbed much of the mainstream far right into one electoral power base.

    he is a skilled speaker who by combining that with his natural charisma and a well thought out apparently coherent series of statements has succeeded in bringing together a variety of electors under a common banner,not least by the simple expedient of using the principle of making one statement that means different things to each listener and even more importantly that what each hears is what they want to hear from their leader whilst stressing that it is about “us” not him.

    he is extremely good at using the media ,his stunts and seeming gaffs are a sound tactic to get his profile noticed by all or a section of his powerbase at strategic moments in a way that appeals to them.

    he appears to have had a goal when he decided to enter politics and has worked towards it using a series of well organised tactics at each stage throughout the course of his overall plan.
    he has shown himself capable of adapting to changes in circumstance throughout this process.

    part 2 psychological profile

    without opportunity to interrogate him in depth a psycological profile can only be based on observational analysis of words and deeds and is at best the opinion of the observer of what is partial data.

    he is a game player and appears to relish the game as much, if not more than, the prize .
    although the prize is important to him it is the process that seems to be his prime motivation.
    he was a moderately successful financial trader but when he had enough money to be more than comfortable his focus changed from the game of acquiring wealth to that of politics and acquiring power.
    it is plausible that he has wanted power from an early age and acquiring wealth was the first round of the game as the means to continue into the second round of political life.

    he is very focussed upon the goal he sets for himself and although he has faced setbacks and what to many would be full stops he is capable of re assessing the situation and by adapting to it and by developing a new strategy to overcome the problems he has continued to strive towards his overall aim.
    this demonstrates his understanding of recognising his mistakes and addressing their causes as part of the process of winning.

    he is charismatic and capable of using this to quite ruthlessly recruit those who’s aims are not his but are useful to his strategy.

    he is ruthless and although he is a charming ally he will break that alliance and if necessary become an enemy if the alliance ceases to serve his aims as circumstances change.
    in any alliance his attitude is what can they do for me rather than what can we do for both parties or i can help them.
    he is willing to make alliances with those who have very different aims to himself and perhaps underestimates the dangers of that.this point is important.

    overall he seems to be on the psychopathic spectrum but has, so far, used this aspect of his personality constructively towards his goals.

    he is generally optimistic and is willing to take risks however he is prone to moments of depression when things go wrong ,he seems to get passed this fairly quickly and uses them to re assess the situation and then his optimistic traits provoke him into re designing his strategy
    this is one of his major strengths.

    he appears to be borderline functional alcoholic but has enough insight into that to use it to his advantage and prevent it being a weakness.it could be considered he successfully self medicates using alcohol to mitigate both his moments of depression and over active nature.

    he is very empathic which in combination with his psychopathic traits makes him a very skilled manipulator of people.

    he has a sense of humour which includes some genuinely funny insights into his own weaknesses as well as observational humour which he employs as a tool of rhetoric.

    he shows no signs of delusional behaviour, psychosis or bipolar illnesses

    he is rational and pragmatic rather than having fixed ideas which do not adapt to circumstance

    he is vain and needs admiration but recognises that should be a means to an end rather than an end in itself.
    his vanity may express itself as a desire to be seen as a great leader among the greats of history.this is important as it perhaps provides an insight into his overall goal.
    the greatest danger his vanity poses is that he underestimates the risks posed to himself from his “friends” and does not recognise that they may hold him in contempt while finding him temporarily useful.

    he is well above average intelligence and demonstrates a variety of intelligence types ,especially logic,data analysis and lateral thought.
    he is good at thinking quickly to solve problems and getting the correct answer more often than not

    he is good at rapid adaptation

    he appears to be mentally fit.

    he has good insight into his strengths and weaknesses and both mitigates them sensibly and adapts to them in a positive way.

    addendum
    he seems physically fit for a man of his age ,lifestyle and work load although his back injury can cause him pain and may at times require rest and/or medication.it seems he is sensible about this and avoids duty when in pain or using mind altering meds.

    part 3 overview

    he is a clever,adaptable,focussed on the big picture sort of chap.

    his overall aim appears to be a position of considerable power ,pm or dictator.
    he is capable of achieving that.

    he is better at making allies than most but some of those alliances may prove his greatest weakness as his greatest dangers come from his friends rather than his enemies.

    although in himself he is likely to be an inclusive, rational, and pragmatic leader, in a position of great power the greatest danger he poses is that if his power is taken by those with very unpleasant attitudes and little grasp of the successful use of power.
    this could be the cause of great trouble.

    personal political attitude
    he appears to consider that he would be a historically great benign centre right dictator who would pragmatically solve many problems using the personal attributes, strategies and tactics that brought him to power
    he may be correct but he may have seriously underestimated the dangers posed by his allies

    conclusion

    he is capable and indirectly very dangerous as much like julius caeser his almost benign view of things and pragmatic attitude to alliances could put him and the rest of us at great risk should he achieve his aim of considerable power without taking steps to eliminate some of his more dangerous allies once they have served their purpose .

    although his nature may be almost benign he is very capable of being psychopathically ruthless in the pursuit of a semi benign overall goal which makes him very dangerous in a direct way

    his idea of semi benign policies is very much at odds with that of many people and his ruthless nature puts those who oppose his aims in considerable danger

    to put it in the simplest terms whilst he is not necessarily a great danger in himself those close to him who would covet his power and some of those who may propel him to power for their own agenda are very plausibly capable of seizing that power, should he achieve it, if he does not use it in the directions they desire
    .
    these factors are what makes him extremely dangerous.

    • Aardvark

      Farage thought his car had been ‘tampered’ with and then there was that strange, light air craft, campaign crash. Paranoid, accident prone, or maybe he is considered too dangerous?

      I think Gojam is probably right, it’s probably going to be Theresa May, who has also been biding her time and is supposedly unsullied by Brexit. There will be a renegotiated EU deal, preplanned by the Bullingdon boys, tricking the ‘dumb’ electorate, which will leave the poorest in society, potentially worse off, without the same EU funding and laws, which would have protected them. Free movement will be non negotiable, as Merkel has reiterated and which they were well aware of from the start and which they are quite content to accept, as it boosts their economy, so was it a big con job after all?

  16. Aardvark

    Charismatic, fascist politicians are only ‘dangerous’ if the social and political climate enables them, we forget the 1930s at our peril. It is not surprising that the rise of Farage, has coincided with the growing gap between the rich and poor, increased immigration, which has driven down the wages, of the lowest paid workers and there has been a massive increase in the cost of living, particularly housing, over the last 20 years.

    It really isn’t rocket science, it’s not difficult to imagine that many people feel disaffected and angry and want something or someone to blame, but the political parties are not listening, too busy with their own agendas, but Nigel is listening and has been manipulating the situation for all it’s worth!

    Your horoscope/ analysis is interesting, he is manipulative and slippery, like most politicians are, Boris is equally untrustworthy, driven and is also a compulsive liar. You could also add, that Farage, having lost his father at such a formative age (5 years old) craves adoration and has probably looked up to a father figure or cause to try and fill that sense of loss. Enoch Powell was probably the figure that inspired him in this respect.

    He is persuasive, because he is adept at making out he is the man of the people, even though he is a wealthy public school toff. The issue is, if the other parties don’t get on the case and improve the lot of those who have fallen off the radar in Society and that includes a lot of poor people from the right and the left of the political spectrum, there will be trouble and Farage is just biding his time.

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