Monthly Archives: June 2012

No Conspiracy, Just a Malignant Web of Influence.

So, only in the last week we’ve seen the mis-selling of interest rate swap derivatives hit the headlines after the FSA had said they were investigating the issue further [ congratulations Telegraph], at the very least, one major bank, Barclays, fined £290 million by the FSA and US CFTC for manipulating the Libor rate over the last five years, [Barclays settled another 19 banks are named as defendents, so watch this one], and we learnt that South London Healthcare Trust is going into administration after being financially crippled by a usurious PFI [watch this one too as over £56 billion of capital has been invested through PFI into the public sector, schools and more hospitals could be at risk].

During the week I posted an article directed at those people who spend their time surfing the internet looking for pictures of cute cats, my tongue was in my cheek a little, but the point I was trying to make was a serious one. Nevertheless, after rereading that short piece again I realised it all looked a little fanatical, perhaps even conspiracy-ish, especially the line; “You are being exploited by a powerful elite who will lie while stealing everything you own.”, and I realised that I should try and get down something a little more comprehensive rather than shorthand that could look like conspiracy theory mantra which can easily be dismissed as somewhat unhinged.

So, here it is; Very broadly speaking our society can normally be divided into three groups, the top 5%, the bottom 5%, and everyone in between. The top 5% are not only the most wealthy, but also the most powerful and the most influential. They include politicians, bankers, businessmen, and those involved in the media, including journalists. They are senior civil servants, senior police officers, senior military officers, and the judiciary. These are the people who run our country and who influence how you think far more than you could ever imagine.

But there is no conspiracy, this 5%, or 1%, or even a representative group of the 1%, do not meet somewhere and agree between themselves how to exploit the majority. There is no conspiracy because there just doesn’t need to be one. Each individual has a job to do, or role to play, and their own personal interests, and they instinctively recognise the power and influence of the others within that top 5% group and they understand that it is in their interests to work within that group and not to try and undermine it. This is by necessity a generalisation, I have no doubt that there very many honourable individuals within this group.

And so instead of a giant conspiracy we end up with a web of influence. Some areas within the group like the judiciary have great power but, because of the necessarily independent nature of their role, less contact. Police ‘need’ to talk with journalists, the industrial/military complex ‘need’ to talk with the military, politicians ‘need’ to talk with bankers, and so on. They meet through their work and they network in their social life. In theory there should be nothing wrong with this but the problems arise when the ‘you scratch my back, I’ll scratch yours’ arrangements are not in the public interest as a whole but just to consolodate the wealth and position of that 5%.

People of the same trade seldom meet together, even for merriment and diversion, but the conversation ends in a conspiracy against the public, or in some contrivance to raise prices. It is impossible indeed to prevent such meetings, by any law which either could be executed, or would be consistent with liberty or justice. But though the law cannot hinder people of the same trade from sometimes assembling together, it ought to do nothing to facilitate such assemblies; much less to render them necessary. – Adam Smith

Swap ‘same trade’ for ‘establishment’ in the above and it is just as applicable today as ever it was.

Once again I must generalise, the second group are the bottom 5%, the poor and the voiceless, and often, but not always, poorly educated. Fast food and X factor are the modern equivalents of ‘Bread and Circuses’, if things get too bad some will turn to crime.

The big problem for the status quo is the 90% between these two extremes, they can not be easily generalised. They range from the aspirational knocking on the door of the top 5% to those who are worried about joining the bottom 5% in poverty. Fewer and fewer are getting the opportunity of climbing the ladder, more and more are concerned about their futures. The young, who are increasingly university educated but increasingly without a job, pensioners who are watching their savings swallowed by inflation and low interest rates, head of families who have lost their jobs and risk losing their homes, repossessed by the same banks which precipitated the problems they are now facing.

They are becoming discontent and what do they see ? They finally see, that for atleast 15 years, probably far longer, a small group of people have been enriching themselves at their expense. They have always prided themselves on paying their taxes and abiding by the law but now they realised that they’ve been taken for mugs. Those laws constrain them but not the top 5%, those taxes are paid by them but not those who can afford a creative accountant.

All those in the top 5% are desperate to mend the broken system but many others are now asking themselves whether it is a system they really want to repair. The top 5% want to draw a line under everything that has happened, in this way retaining their position atop of society but others are questioning whether it is right that those who have enriched themselves for over a decade, while exploiting the law abiding and taxpaying majority, should be left with the wealth which will ensure their continued power.

The top 5% will do everything they can to keep this corrupt system afloat and they are. But all of their policies only reward the top 5%  while further impoverishing the majority, increasing week by week the numbers of discontent. If they continue to inflate the economy and prop up the banks, while refusing to take serious measures on growth which would reduce unemployment, and if they stand idly by while family homes are repossessed by the banks themselves, then even in this placid country discontent could turn into civil unrest. There is always a tipping point.

And then there is the big lie, that this is the only way a democracy can work, that there is nothing that can be done. This lie is streamed through our television screens, our radios, newspapers, and computers. The politicians, bankers, journalists and business leaders all retell the big lie, reinforcing the message at every opportunity, exploiting our ignorance and lack of confidence. But stop to think whether this mass of ‘independent commentators’ have any vested interest in amplifying this big lie through the media, whether the status quo empowers them, and you should then have enough doubt to atleast question the ethicacy of their repeated remonstrations.

So just to be absolutely clear, there is no conspiracy, just a malignant web of influence.

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Tense Turkish/Syrian Stand Off.

It was only one week ago, Friday 22nd June, that a Turkish F-4 Phantom was shot down by the Syrian Military. Since that time the situation has escalated, even if the story is not being given the prominence in the MSM that it deserves.

In the past week Syrian forces have fired on another Turkish aircraft, NATO has met under Article 4 of their constitution and Turkish land forces have begun to amass on their border with Syria.

Now according to Gen Mustafa al-Sheikh, head of the Free Syrian Army’s military council, Syrian land forces are heading north to meet them.

Earlier in the week Recep Erdogan, the Turkish Prime Minister spoke out, “We did not receive a single warning note from Syria,”   he said. “They acted without [warning]. This is a hostile act.”

Erdogan explained that as a result Turkey’s armed forces now stood on heightened alert. “The rules of engagement of the Turkish Armed Forces have changed given this new development,” said Mr Erdogan. “Any military element that approaches the Turkish border from Syria by posing a security risk and danger will be regarded as a threat and treated as a military target.”

Some ‘insiders’claim that the Turkish forces will fire on any Syrian forces approaching the Turkish border within 5km inside Syrian territory.

Now we hear that 170 Syrian tanks are have amassed at Aleppo near the Turkish border.

The situation is precarious and potentially dangerous and if it does all go off I doubt we’ll ever get to the bottom of who fired first.

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Déjà Vu………again ?

by Nomadscot

Going by past performances – of which there have been many, today should progress like this:

1. Smiling and nodding Euromuppets announce latest breakthrough  in efforts to save the unsaveable Euro, amidst great back slapping and mutual congratulations all round.

2. Markets dance the Dead Cat Bounce, reach new highs since last solution to the crisis.

3. Euphoria gives way to caution, caution gives way to suspicion and suspicion gives way to the realisation that it’s all bollocks – again.

4. Markets settle back, and Euromuppets announce a new summit in a month’s time, to include photographs, lovely dinners and high profile press conferences.

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The ‘Deal’ is Not Done Until the Bundestag Vote

……………….and even then it won’t come into German law until the constutional court have ruled on its legality.

At around 9pm this evening the German Bundestag will vote on the ESM Bill.

Only 2 days ago Chancellor Merkel addressed the German Parliament, assuring them that there would be no further changes to the ESM [European Stability Mechanism] but if you are to believe the noises coming out of Brussels, Merkel has made concessions and the nature of the proposed ESM has changed.

So now, Frau Merkel must go back to the Bundestag tonight and explain herself.

The Bundestag will need to vote with a two thirds majority for this constitutional change. There are 622 MPs in the Bundestag, so, if everyone were to attend and vote, atleast 415 need to vote for the ESM.

In a recent test vote on the ESM, only 11 members voted against. But that was before the supposed changes. I expect it will pass with opposition MPs abstaining rather than voting against.

But that doesn’t mean the ESM will then pass into law. There will be legal challenges as to whether the Bill is constitutional and the German Constitutional Court has been far more ready block Eurozone initiatives than the Bundestag ever has. The court will likely not rule on the ESM until this Autumn.

By which time it may all be moot anyway…

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Barclays; One Bad Apple ?

by Catherine Carr

It’s quite odd because Libor is set by up to 20 banks depending on the currency. and is then averaged after losing the highest and lowest prices….

So how is just one bank able to influence libor ? If they are too far out of kilter then their price is ignored..

So if prices are fixed then there has to be a cartel and Barclays dealers are just part of it….

This fine that has been imposed ought to be coming down on the other banks involved pretty soon…

So for Sterling this lot would have had to be in on the act..

Abbey National plc

Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd

Barclays Bank plc

BNP Paribas

Citibank NA

Credit Agricole CIB

Deutsche Bank AG

HSBC

JP Morgan Chase

Lloyds Banking Group

Mizuho Corporate Bank

Rabobank

Royal Bank of Canada

The Royal Bank of Scotland

Group Société Générale

UBS AG

And for Dollars this lot would have had to be in on the act..

Bank of America

Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd

Barclays Bank plc

BNP Paribas

Citibank

NA Credit Agricole CIB

Credit Suisse

Deutsche Bank AG

HSBC

JP Morgan Chase

Lloyds Banking Group

Rabobank Royal Bank of Canada

Société Générale

Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation

The Norinchukin Bank

The Royal Bank of Scotland Group

UBS AG

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/L

http://www.bbalibor.com/bbalib

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Man the Lifeboats !

Germans Women and children über alles first !

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Filed under Economic Crisis, Humour

Approaching End Game.

by sdharbinger

Last Throw of the Dice ?

This has the feeling that the end game is now about to play out.  There can be no solution or compromise as the positions have been drawn up.  Merkel by addressing her party and parliament and definitively ruling out Eurobonds in her life-time, has put herself in a position where it is impossible to cede to the demands of the Latin block.  For Spain, Italy and France it is not an ideological problem – both left and right parties want to liberate the ECB as they have no other choice.

Spain’s, Italy’s,Greece’s and France’s banks are bust, and the Spanish and Italian governments are now insolvent.  France will follow.  The problem here is that the debt situations of both their banks and states are massively understated and huge amounts of liabilities have been shipped off the books – but they are still debts and liabilities which need to be paid or defaulted on whether they are part of the official accounts or not.

Germany doesn’t have the money to save Europe especially when everyone comes clean about the real state of their accounts.

The true state of the Latin Block’s finances is starting to show now as its leaders become increasingly desperate.  100 billion is not enough to save Spain’s banks.  They have already had 200 billion in LTRO and were forced to ‘invest’ it in their own government’s bonds for a loss.  If their true needs are 350 billion, its pointless thinking that even 100 billion is going to get them out of trouble.  Where will they invest it this time to get themselves off the hook?

The reason the Eurozone lurches from crisis to crisis is that by consistently understating the size of the financial problem, the solution is always necessarily under-funded.  This sets up the requirement for the future bailout in principle as surely as night follows day.  The new model of accounting everywhere is Enronesque and fraud has permeated throughout all our government, financial and corporate institutions.

Spain, Italy, France all need to desperately get their hands on the ECB and print their way out of trouble and the only thing standing in their way is Germany and a few northern satellites (though a few of them they may not be adverse to having a Eurozone Fed to fall back on).

This situation has moved beyond politics or ideology.  It is now merely a question of economics.  Eurozone Corp is bust, yet it still retains the possibility to print its way out of trouble and the markets will celebrate.  The time to fix these problems was 5 years ago and now it is too late.  All that is left is to emulate what the UK and US have done and monetize the debts using central bank printed money.

This is the dawn of the economic Euro dead, with the virgin Germany waking up to find itself surrounded by zombie banks and zombie economies.  Angela Merkel has so far avoided their plodding and cumbersome advances, but there must surely come a point when the heroine gets on a fast motorcylce and gets the hell out of town.

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Pulling the Trigger on the Banks.

by EF

And we are supposed to take the advice of a bank CEO (Standard Chartered is also, as rumour has it, under investigation for the Libor fixing) about whether or not the UK remains in the EU, are we?  Are democratic rights across the western world to be sacrificed on the altar of casino capitalism which benefits no-one but the corrupt institutions and officials who make billions from it?

It is clear now where the spend, spend, spend policies of the neo-liberalism of the past decade have got us – to bankruptcy, economic dictatorship and a lethal co-dependency between incompetent/corrupt politicians and those shadowy figures with the key to the petty cash tin in the zombie banks.

EU politicians promised manna to the masses (and healthy kickbacks for themselves) and turned to the banks for money, in many cases through elaborate and extrotionate PFI schemes.  Now governments can’t let bust banks fail because they need them to keep on buying worthless government bonds to fuel their vote-buying, crony-bribing spending sprees.  At the behest of these same bankers and politicians, economies are being strangled into depression and trillions are being poured into a bottomless pit of debt interest.  In order to perpetuate this systemic corruption, the earnings of taxpayers’ great-great grandchildren are being offered as collateral, and the populations funding this gigantic ponzi scheme are being systematically disenfranchised.

To solve the economic crisis this unholy political-banking elite has caused in Europe, we are being frogmarched into a ‘banking union’ that would make us liable for financial corruption across the entire continent (when we have quite enough to pay for home), an unelected finance ministry in Brussels to set tax rates and spending policies, and a wholly unaccountable European superstate run by the very same people who created the mess we are in.

What is needed is a brutal crack down on the miscreant banks, the voluntary insolvency of those that cannot be saved, orderly euro-exits and no bailouts, an agreed programme of debt forgiveness, new very strict criteria for lending with harsh penalties to encourage sound investment and not asset bubbles.  And bankers should be told in no uncertain terms to get their own house in order before they condemn UK citizens to permanent serfdom as tax-slaves to the EU.

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Utilising ‘Cute Cat’ Theory

What is ‘Cute Cat’ Theory ?

You may have been drawn to this site after searching for pictures of ‘cute cats’ on ‘Google Images’.

If that is the case please read the rest of this short message.

You are being exploited by a powerful elite who will lie while stealing everything you own.

They want to make you and your family ‘debt slaves’ so that you can serve them for generations to come.

Stop looking for pictures of cute cats on the internet and start educating yourself before it’s too late!

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Rise of the Lie-Borg.

– On Barclays rigging, for over 5 years, the Libor rate, their subsequent ‘slap on the wrist’, and Bob Diamond reliquishing ‘next’ year’s bonus.

 

MESSAGE READS:

Planet Earth !!

“We care not about you organic life forms and your standard of living, we are the Borg, the Lie-Borg!”

“Decency? honesty? These are the weaknesses of your species. Join the Lie-Borg and you will quickly recognise the benefits.”

“See how, even now, when only a small part of our lies are revealed, that we can not be touched ?”

“Only by becoming part of the Lie-Borg can you become untouchable.”

“We are the future.”

“There is no place for organic concepts like conscience, we are the Borg, the Lie-Borg.”

MESSAGE ENDS.

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That Historic Handshake !

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Of Euro Bondage

Angela Merkel, yesterday, made her views on Eurobonds as clear as is possible, “not as long as I live”, or in more colloquial English ‘Over my dead body’, this, after yet another attempt by the Eurocrats to gently coerce the Germans towards a more positive approach to ‘shared liability’ by announcing that EU negotiations were moving in that direction. Merkel’s unprecedented clarity on the Eurobond issue was met by huge applause by the German crowd who heard her speak, one even cried out “We hope you live a long life!”   Anybody who still thinks that there will be a solution to the Euro Crisis which will include any form of European shared liability, including Eurobonds, isn’t paying attention or simply doesn’t understand European political/financial dynamics.

There are two main reasons why Germany does not wish to be part of a closer fiscal union, or a broad based Federal Union of Europe, at this time, under these circumstances.

The first is that they do not wish to be shackled to other countries who have significantly lower standards of financial probity and who have now got themselves into such a state that, by shackling themselves to them, they would endanger the future prosperity and standard of living of their own citizens. It’s not Germany’s fault that their citizens pay their taxes, that they work hard, that they produce high quality goods which people from other countries wish to purchase. It’s not their fault that they are trusted by financial markets and are considered a reliable investment. Don’t underestimate the West German experience of reunification with the East and the financial sacrifices that they have endured over the last 20 years. They’ve done ‘bailout’ before and they understand the cost and they know that this is on an altogether different scale, by unknown muliples, than bailing out East Germany.

They also understand the consequences of not helping, they know that their own standard of living will be hit considerably, if not catastrophically, if the Euro collapses, they understand that they are not immune from any potential contagion.

The second reason why most Germans do not wish to take the Eurobond – Fiscal Union – Federal Europe road  [at this time, under these circumstances] is historical and sociological. It’s 67 years since WWII ended, and even though only German pensioners have any memory of it, and realistically you’d have to be atleast 85 years old to have participated in it, Germans still have to endure quite cruel taunting and caricature. Even now, Nazi references are rife in southern European demonstrations. Do not think that Germans have become desensitised to this. I can remember a young well educated German woman crying, while I was working out there 20 years ago, as she tried to convey to me exactly how she felt about her country’s recent history, a history she had played no part in but one she, nevertheless, had relunctantly  inherited.

If Germany were to pursue the road to a Federal Europe, at this time, they would assume a position of leadership, they actually don’t really want this, they would much prefer to work for a Federal Europe with partners but that just isn’t possible under the current circumstances. If they lead they know that history will become a club which they will be hit with, at every opportunity, by anyone with a grievance.

The flip side of this historical ‘guilt’ is a growing resentment. Why should Germany try and put the rest of Europe on a straight path by ensuring that it undertakes unpopular measures, the only possible way out of the mess, if by doing so they are going to be caricatured as Nazis pursuing a hidden agenda of European domination ?

They are damned if they do, and damned if they don’t.

Merkel has decided that Germany won’t.

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Dung Beetle Bank Run !

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Hospitals devoured by PFI Loansharks

So, it looks like an NHS trust in the UK is going to go bankrupt.

Why ?

Private Finance Initiatives (PFI) are partnerships between private companies and public services. The private company, or consortium, stumps up the finance for the public service and the NHS trust then repays the private company under a system of annual fees.

In this particular case a private consortium invested £210 million, building two hospitals. South London Healthcare NHS Trust have so far paid back £535 million.

They still owe another £2 billion on the remainder of the contract.

Look at those figures again. borrowed £210 million, repaid £535 million, £2 billion left to pay.

Of course, the NHS money all comes from taxpayers and this is just the tip of the iceberg.

Yet another example of Gordon Brown’s incompetence driving ordinary people into debt slavery, while enriching further the wealthy.

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Cameron Seeks to Divide Britain

The problem with commenting on David Cameron’s speech on welfare reform today is there is such alot to comment on and so I’m not going to go into the details [there is a link to the full speech below].

There were parts of it that I am broadly sympathetic with, which shouldn’t be too much of a surprise as it was pitched at working people like myself, but there is a great deal which has left me feeling slightly uncomfortable.

There is a growing ultra-ideological strain in the Conservative Party which seems to be gaining more confidence and power in government and I’m beginning to worry about what kind of country I’m going to be living in ten years from today. They seem to be prepared to take advantage of the economic difficulties that this country, and Europe are in now and drive through extreme and profound changes in the way our society is structured. They appear to be moving in a libertarian direction and I view this as a dangerous development.

Moraymint wrote an excellent analysis ‘On Rising Tensions in Europe’ a look at how in the past economic difficulties have been followed by extreme politics and conflict. Today, libertarianism is the new fascism and if the ideologues in government and business are allowed to drive this agenda forward, the UK will become divided into two increasingly militant camps, and conflict is bound to follow.

Libertarianism is one of the stupidist and most shortsighted of all ideologies. It’s first principle is that there should be as little taxation as possible and what little taxation there would be, should be, spent protecting the wealth and property of the ‘haves’ from the increasingly marginalised ‘have nots’. It doesn’t take a genius to see that the ‘have nots’, in desperation, would be likely to turn to crime and that the UK could quickly turn into a police state,  its only raison d’être, it’s own survival.

As I said at the beginning, David Cameron pitched this speech at working people, he senses that there are legitimate resentments which he can exploit in the pursuit of an ideological end and he needs to get people like me on board but I worry about where all this is going because I know that libertarians are selfish and only care about themselves and the accumulation of wealth. I know that once those on benefit have been carved away from state support, the ideologues will look for further savings elsewhere, sooner or later it’ll be my health care and my daughter’s education at stake and who will be left to speak up for me ?

First they came for the Socialists, and I did not speak out

— Because I was not a Socialist.

Then they came for the Trade Unionists, and I did not speak out

— Because I was not a Trade Unionist.

Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out

— Because I was not a Jew.

Then they came for me

–and there was no one left to speak for me. – Martin Niemöller

Cameron’s Full Speech 

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Leveson Asserts the Authority of the Law.

Lord Justice Leveson this morning, in a public statement before the day’s proceedings, fired a warning shot across the bows of both the Government and the press.

The message, though not explicit, was clear “Back off !”

Many people have thought long and hard about what is actually wrong with our society. Perhaps, it is that one of the most important pillars of the UK establishment, the law, is too often bookish and dry and fails to ‘compete’ for the public’s consciousness with the sensationalist press and the pandering politicians.

Lord Justice Leveson has calmly and reasonably reasserted the authority of the law, and in doing so he has enhanced the credibility of the Inquiry which bears his name.

Every Briton, without a conflict of interest, should welcome his statement.

This Leveson Inquiry will be no whitewash.

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England Players Win Pizza Hut Contract !

England players celebrated tonight as two of their number looked certain to sign lucrative contracts with Pizza Hut for their upcoming summer advertising campaign.

Ashley Cole and Ashley Young spoke exclusively after the game to ‘The Needle’, perhaps anticipating the contract that was bound to come their way

“For the full 90 minutes, plus extra time, we just couldn’t keep hold of the meatball, they were literally pepperoni-ing our box with constant pressure”, Ashley Young said, “I can’t say I was surprised when I hit the salad bar.”

“I thought long and hard about which side of the net to direct my penalty but in the end an-chov-y’ the wrong way” Ashley Cole added.

“Did they feel any remorse, whatsoever, for letting their team mates, travelling supporters, and country down, by following the well trodden path of Gareth Southgate, Stuart Pearce, and Chris Waddle and making shedloads of money by exploiting their own failure ?” I asked

“Jalape-ño! they replied, as one.

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Mohammed Morsi of the Muslim Brotherhood wins Egyptian Presidency

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8 out of 10 Fat Cats…………..

………..Don’t Admit That Their Tax Avoidance Schemes Are Wrong !

Last night Jimmy Carr accepted full responsibility for channelling his earnings through the entirely legal, though ‘morally wrong’, K2 Tax scheme, which allowed him to pay as little as 1% tax

“I hate to sound like I’m passing the buck, but I’ll tell you who I blame for this whole mess – me. It’s entirely my fault.” he said on the show, 8 out of 10 cats.

This follows his frank personal statement on the issue.

 “I appreciate as a comedian, people   will expect me to ‘make light’ of this situation, but I’m not going to in   this statement as this is obviously a serious matter.

“I met with a financial advisor and he said to me ‘Do you want to pay less tax? It’s totally legal.’ I said ‘Yes.’

“I now realise I’ve made a terrible error of judgment.

“Although I’ve been advised the K2 Tax scheme is entirely legal, and has been fully disclosed to HMRC (Her Majesty’s Revenue and Customs), I’m no longer involved in it and will in future conduct my financial affairs much more responsibly. Apologies to everyone.”

Carr later said:  “I’ve been dishing it out for years, it’s about time I got some.”

And his guests on the popular Friday night show did not disappoint, relentlessly, poking fun at the show’s host.

That’s enough about Jimmy Carr because in publically accepting he’s made a mistake and setting his tax affairs straight he is a creditable exception.

Where is Gary Barlow’s public statement and the other members of Take That ?

What about Lord Ashcroft ?

What about the 2,400 senior civil servants who are, right now, on ‘off payroll’ contracts which allow them to pay 20% tax instead of the 50% they should be paying ?

Or the 3,000 ‘indirect’ BBC employees who have similar arrangements to the civil servants ? [Private Eye issue 1316]

What about the Doctors and Dentists who are screwing the system, where is their statement ?

Or the companies donating money to the Conservative Party via dodgy tax avoidance schemes ?

It’s starting to look like the only people actually paying their tax are those on PAYE.

It’s simply not good enough for the Government to close the tax loopholes, these people have been shafting the Inland Revenue, and by extension all those that have been paying their tax, for years.

Free all the shoplifters from our jails to make room for this scum.

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Syria Downs Turkish F-4 Phantom Jet

An earlier article today by diamond_geezer was prudently entitled ‘Most Frightening News of the Day…….So Far.‘, but the shooting down of a Turkish jet, a NATO member, by Syria is even more frightening in its potential consequences.

Syria immediately apologised for shooting the Turkish F-4 phantom down over the Mediterranean, and so there is no doubt that it indeed did happen, both the pilot and navigator are believed to be safe.

This can go two ways.

Turkey can accept the apology, and presumably compensation, and let it go.

Or Turkey as a valued member of NATO can invoke Article V of the North Atlantic Treaty and legitimately call on the aid of the other 27 members of NATO, including, the USA, UK, Canada, Germany and many, many others.

I would expect mild escalation short, for now, of provocation

Signs to look for:

1) Turkey go to the UN.

2) NATO airpower moved to be based in Turkey and patrolling Turkish and international airspace.

3) Increased NATO naval assets moved to the Eastern Mediterranean

And watch Russian reaction to these moves. If they mirror NATO moves then we have a Cuban Missile Crisis in the making.

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