If Scotland Votes ‘Yes’ Then Coalition Will End.

Coalition first 100 days

The Independence vote in Scotland on 18th September will likely have an immediate effect on British politics if Scotland decides to vote ‘Yes’. It would most likely see a speedy dissolution of the governing Conservative – Liberal Democrat coalition.

Although, the next general election isn’t until May next year and Scotland would not sucede from the United Kingdom until March 2016 it looks likely that the Conservatives would immediately end the Coalition and attempt to govern on their own for the remaining 6 months of the, now statutory, 5 year term despite the fact that the 59 Scottish MPs would still be able to sit and vote in the House of Commons.

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Currently, there are 303 Conservative MPs and 56 Liberal Democrat MPs, meaning the Coalition government has 359 MPs, a majority of  68 seats over all other parties combined in the 650 seat parliament. The largest opposition grouping are Labour with 257 MPs.

However, 59 seats are held by Scottish MPs and despite the fact that they will still be able to vote, they will immediately become ‘second class’ MPs. Everyone in the political establishment will be at great pains to deny this but it would be extremely damaging if any Scottish MPs attempted to  interfere in the governance of the UK and with only 6 months to go before a general election, it would be extremely counter-productive to attempt to do so.

Of the 59 Scottish MPs only 1 is Conservative, 41 are Labour and 11 are Liberal Democrat and 6 are SNP.

Excluding the ‘second class’ Scottish MPs following a ‘Yes’ vote, the members of Parliament still with the political and moral authority in the House of Commons to overthrow a government would number 591. Of those, 302 would be Tory giving them an overall majority.

Labour would have 206 (from 257) ‘first class’ MPs, while the Lib Dems would have 45 ( from 56)

Talk of ‘first class’ and ‘second class’ members of parliament might seem fanciful but the political calculation that the Conservatives will make will be that if the Labour party or Lib Dems attempted to use Scottish MPs in a vote of no confidence in such a ‘minority’ Conservative government it would ultimately be politically damaging for both parties in any general election that might follow.

 

 

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10 Comments

Filed under News, Politics

10 responses to “If Scotland Votes ‘Yes’ Then Coalition Will End.

  1. We are talking about Politicians here, the people that were never going to be forgiven for fighting to the death to keep secret their systematic fraud re expenses? – forgotten about.

    The people that deregulated the City financiers while they defrauded the whole world and then collected OUR money at negligible rates to loan back to us at HIGH rates. – forgotten about.

    The people that started illegal wars based on fake evidence costing the lives of at least 100000 innocent civilians not to mention the lives and limbs of our sons and brothers. – forgotten about.

    The people that are struggling to keep the lid on the scandal of decades of CSA by establishment figures that was obviously tolerated. – not forgotten about because it’s not even being exposed !

    We really expect them to give a toss about dishonourable behaviour regarding ‘first class’ or ‘second class’ members if it conflicts with their interests?

  2. Anon

    Since when has a fixed 5 year term been statuary or even statutory?

    A quick vote of No Confidence would soon bring this House of Cards down.

    • Since after the last election when 5 year fixed terms became law.

      apologies for the typo.

      • Tom

        That’s true but, as Sabre says, there are quite a few circumstances where it wouldn’t be possible for a government to see out five years – and the coalition falling apart would be one.

      • But not if the Tories perceived they had a working majority and with these unusual circumstances they probably would feel they have one.

    • Barrie J

      Under the new statute two votes of ‘No Confidence’ in the government would now be required, I believe they have to be within 14 days of one another but have been unable to find the relevant information to confirm.

  3. artmanjosephgrech

    However it is difficult to see how Cameron could personally survive.. Salmond also knows that the purpose for his party being gained Scotland would become permanently Labour.

    It would difficult to hold Northern Ireland once that population shit underway.. Catholic produce more children with the pressure for a referendum to join back to Eire.

    There is already talk of greater Taxation powers for London.

    It is a very dangerous situation which could be a vote to leave Europe

    If major politicians are arrested re crimes of sexual violence against children or others and major establishment figures for cover up before these constitutional issues are sorted what do you think the impact will be?

  4. steve

    go for it Scotland break away and make your country yours and run by your people,im sure you will be better of than us in england

  5. Barrie J

    I would hope that the people of Scotland be allowed to make their own decision and should they decide to vote yes, then be prepared to grow their new independent nation, with the help and support of England, Wales and Northern Ireland.
    However, having seen the range of dirty tricks that Westminster have been prepared to use to ‘influence’ the debate, I am unsure that the Scottish people will be allowed to make that decision.
    The state own the machinery of the ballot and I expect the security services to be used to rig the vote.
    The Tories, MI5 and the Daily Mail were happy to collude over the Zinoviev letter, and wouldn’t hesitate to do so again.
    I’d expect the NO vote to have it by a small margin, not enough to suggest corruption.
    Something similar to the 2nd vote for a Welsh Assembly.

    I really do hope to be proved wrong.

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