Watch The Rotherham By-Election, It’ll Be Close !

This Thursday, 29th November, there will be a by-election in Rotherham and it has the potential to transform the political landscape in this country.

The result at the last election was as follows:

As you can see it was a clear win for Labour in it’s northern heartland. But much has changed since 2010.

To begin with this by-election follows the resignation of Denis MacShane for corruption. This would have a negative effect on the Labour vote anyway, which would normally manifest itself in a reduced Labour supporting turn out but there are other factors which will come into play.

Before looking at those other factors let’s examine who will be standing in the by-election.

As you can see, there are far more candidates standing in the by-election than did at the general election, this is quite normal. Ignore the Independents, the Engish Democrats, the Conservatives and the Lib Dems, they will be lucky if they keep their deposits.

It will be the distribution of votes between these candidates, below, which will decide who wins on Thursday.

1) The cause of the by-election will hit the Labour vote.

2) The recent paedophile ring scandals will hit the Labour vote and benefit the BNP and UKIP.

3) The ludicrous decision by the local Labour council to discriminate against two UKIP members fostering children will benefit UKIP.

There is a large asian community in Rotherham who might otherwise have voted for Labour but they have an easily recognisable alternative in Respect and some might even feel comfortable voting for UKIP. Some will still vote Labour, very few if any will vote BNP.

Of the white voters in Rotherham, those who normally vote Conservative could switch to UKIP as could some Labour voters though more white working class Labour voters are likely to vote BNP.

I could go on but my point is that this election could go to any one of those four candidates.

So here is my prediction for the result. I can’t tell you who will win but I would guess that 10,000 votes could win it and that those four candidates will all get more that 6,000 votes each.

I’d put UKIP and Respect as joint favourites.

A UKIP win could be a game changer.

Labour third and the BNP fourth.

If anyone wants to leave their own prediction before Thursday, we’ll see who is closest on Friday morning.

7 Comments

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7 responses to “Watch The Rotherham By-Election, It’ll Be Close !

  1. Tom Austin

    You no longer vote. I imagine that there is hope for you yet, and hope for us all therefore, given your early baptism in the electioneering-font. You must at least have given it a try.
    You are quite right…
    “How many times have you heard the mantra that ‘if you don’t vote, you can’t complain’? Whereas, actually, the opposite is true, ‘if you do vote, you can’t complain.’ ”
    Well, I agree with you on that point anyway. The Public-Service announcements we get from time to time on the ‘importance’ of voting from the BBC are utter tosh.
    But, why do we struggle with the sorting out of the problems of ‘The Universe and Everything’ when we should instead concentrate on the other thing, the first thing on that famous list. ‘Life’. We only get the one.
    Low turnouts, as we saw last week, are no barrier to the official acceptance of the result. [Though, I am personally a little chuffed that the spoiled ballot numbers made some small impact.]
    The lack of choice at the ballot box is a real pain and the fact that Politics is widely accepted to be a top-down affair are the basic ills. Fix the second and the first will sort itself out, I say.

  2. Tom Austin

    Maybe next time, as far as a sizeable turnout is concerned. I see the turnout has been reported at 33.89%. Yet again the usual suspects get the result that suits them. Not until we each accept our place at the centre of our Democracy and get out and proclaim our view at the ballot box will we see the progress we spend the years between elections moaning and groaning about, and cry out for.

    How are things at the count, I wonder?

  3. Tom Austin

    A close thing for first place between an Independent and Respect, UKIP will be among the also-rans.
    The patience of a saint would have been sorely tested by the same-old-politics-stuff, and I hope to see the Electorate out in large numbers to stick it to them. Now is not the time to turn our backs on the process, but it is the time to make the process work for the Voter.

      • Tom Austin

        As I am not involved in this election and as there is no money on it I would be happy to see either Paul Dickson or Simon Copley in the photo-finish with Respect.
        The one aspect of these three bye-elections today that could bring real change to the policies of the present mob in Parliament, and to the next General Election, is the turnout. For too long the Electorate has left Politics to the professional politician and left them to get on with it. Hopefully we can all now see the folly of our passing-up our duty to order our Democracy as we see fit.

  4. Ashlee Ryan

    1st Respect
    2nd UKIP
    3rd Labour
    4th BNP