The ‘Deal’ is Not Done Until the Bundestag Vote

……………….and even then it won’t come into German law until the constutional court have ruled on its legality.

At around 9pm this evening the German Bundestag will vote on the ESM Bill.

Only 2 days ago Chancellor Merkel addressed the German Parliament, assuring them that there would be no further changes to the ESM [European Stability Mechanism] but if you are to believe the noises coming out of Brussels, Merkel has made concessions and the nature of the proposed ESM has changed.

So now, Frau Merkel must go back to the Bundestag tonight and explain herself.

The Bundestag will need to vote with a two thirds majority for this constitutional change. There are 622 MPs in the Bundestag, so, if everyone were to attend and vote, atleast 415 need to vote for the ESM.

In a recent test vote on the ESM, only 11 members voted against. But that was before the supposed changes. I expect it will pass with opposition MPs abstaining rather than voting against.

But that doesn’t mean the ESM will then pass into law. There will be legal challenges as to whether the Bill is constitutional and the German Constitutional Court has been far more ready block Eurozone initiatives than the Bundestag ever has. The court will likely not rule on the ESM until this Autumn.

By which time it may all be moot anyway…

Comments Off on The ‘Deal’ is Not Done Until the Bundestag Vote

Filed under Economic Crisis

Comments are closed.