An earlier article today by diamond_geezer was prudently entitled ‘Most Frightening News of the Day…….So Far.‘, but the shooting down of a Turkish jet, a NATO member, by Syria is even more frightening in its potential consequences.
Syria immediately apologised for shooting the Turkish F-4 phantom down over the Mediterranean, and so there is no doubt that it indeed did happen, both the pilot and navigator are believed to be safe.
This can go two ways.
Turkey can accept the apology, and presumably compensation, and let it go.
Or Turkey as a valued member of NATO can invoke Article V of the North Atlantic Treaty and legitimately call on the aid of the other 27 members of NATO, including, the USA, UK, Canada, Germany and many, many others.
I would expect mild escalation short, for now, of provocation
Signs to look for:
1) Turkey go to the UN.
2) NATO airpower moved to be based in Turkey and patrolling Turkish and international airspace.
3) Increased NATO naval assets moved to the Eastern Mediterranean
And watch Russian reaction to these moves. If they mirror NATO moves then we have a Cuban Missile Crisis in the making.
theneedleblog 
Hi Dave, you are right. In my defence the news had only just broken when I wrote it and there weren’t enough details…… There still isn’t really.
Also the pilots haven’t been found and I said here they were believe to be safe.
It might struggle with the article V invocation given that in was in Syrian airspace (allegedly) but I get your drift.
An interesting development in the confusing world of bluff and double bluff.